Breaking down Deni Avdija's first season with the Blazers - what he did well, and the next steps forward for him.

My favorite developments this season for Deni, as well as some improvement areas that I think could really take him to the next level.

By pretty much all metrics, it’s been a great season for Deni Avdija. He had a really bad start to the season, he averaged 11/6/3 on 39/31/78 splits over the first 20 games of the season and got benched for poor play. But then, in the next 52 games, he averaged 19 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 4.2 assists, shooting 50/38/78 (62.7% TS) - which is pretty easily the longest sustained stretch of good basketball in Deni’s career. To drive this point home, Deni has scored over 26 points 16 times over his 5 year career. 14 of these games came after Christmas day 2024. He’s made some notable improvements in his game offensively and has transformed himself into a dynamic creator with the ball in his hands. Here are some of my observations throughout the season, as well as some things I think he improve to take his game to the next level.

Transition: We all knew Deni was awesome in transition and was basically a one man fast break once he got a rebound. That wasn’t a surprise to many people who watched him in Washington – after all he earned the name “Turbo Mode” for a reason. And there are probably countless highlights on YouTube of how dynamic he is in transition with the ball in his hands.

The stats might not look that pretty in transition on the surface, but keep in mind that any transition play is an absurdly efficient play in and of itself. So even if you’re not that efficient on a points-per-shot basis in transition, being able to grab a rebound and create a transition play out of thin air is super valuable because even a relatively inefficient transition play (compared to most other transition plays) is a much better possession than your average halfcourt possession. Especially on a team that really struggles in the halfcourt, like the Blazers.

One specific thing that particularly impressed me in transition was Deni’s ability to generate rim pressure in non-numbers-advantage situations. I feel like coaches normally tell you to slow down the pace and wait for your teammates if you don’t have a numbers advantage, but Deni defies this logic. He’s super good at recognizing if the defenders are out of position, and using his speed to beat defenders to the spot and turn what looks like a numbers disadvantage into a 1v1 at the rim (which Deni will usually win).

However, having watched quite a few games of his with the Wizards, I was really impressed with how he improved in the following areas:

PnR creation: So far in his career until this season, I always got the impression that Deni was a bit of a clunky halfcourt player since he was a little bit of a reluctant shooter, and the halfcourt ballhandling was always more theoretical than actual. However, he’s been empowered with more responsibility and touches this season, and it’s paid off in a big way. Per Synergy, he totaled 260 PnR ballhandler possessions this season, and averaged 0.95 PPP in those possessions (good for the 73^rd percentile in the league). This is by far the best volume and efficiency in the PnR so far in his career, and it shows in the film as well.

Pull-up jump shooting: He showed flashes of it last season, but his pull-up three pointer has become way more consistent this year, and he looks super comfortable taking and making shots when defenders go under screens. This season, Deni shot 40.8% (21/71) on pull-up threes, which is also a career high in both volume and accuracy. This has really helped his efficiency in the PnR, as defenders can’t just go under screens and dare him to shoot the ball.

Beyond the pull-up jump shooting, he’s also shown some flashes of nuance and change of pace out of the PnR. He can consistently hit lobs and kickouts, and most of the PnR reads. And he’s had some nice moments where he displayed some creative finishing.

He’s also ridiculously effective rejecting ball screens, especially to his right - where he can use his elite quickness and burst to just get all the way to the rim. Watch as he sets up KD with a little rocker step to his left towards the screen before exploding back right:

I also thought he had a few nice moments in isolations. It’s super low volume, and overall I definitely wouldn’t necessarily say that Deni is a great ISO creator yet, but you can see some flashes especially against guards who just can’t deal with his physicality. He does a good job picking his spots so the volume is low, but this year he was at 1.13 points per possession in isolations (91^st percentile). Again, I stress that the volume was low because he only really isolates when there’s a clear mismatch, but I think to take another leap he can be more aggressive seeking out mismatches. But he’s certainly shown some signs of being able to do it well.

One notable improvement I’ve seen from him this season compared to the last few seasons is drawing FTs – his FTA went from 3.6 last year to 5.2 this year. He’s 13^th in the league in free throw attempts per 100 possessions, which is truly absurd because all the guys ahead of him are bona fide high usage players. And on the tape, he’s become a lot smarter with how to draw fouls. He’s gotten pretty good at ripping through the defender’s arms on drives to force the refs to call fouls (in a way, it’s reminiscent of James Harden)….

or running straight into out-of-position defenders to draw blocking fouls, like Trae Young or SGA.

I should also mention the defense, although this post is already getting too long. But I think Deni is a really solid defender who’s usually at the right place at the right time. Also, his versatility really stands out as he’s quick enough to guard most PGs yet strong enough to guard forwards and even some centers.

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In summary, Deni is a terrific transition player who’s really improving his game in the halfcourt offense. But in order to take the next level as a player…

Upping the isolation volume - I’d love to see him be more aggressive hunting out mismatches, particularly small guards. I mentioned above how he can just bully small guards to the rim, and I’d like to see it some more - particularly, more Deni screens with a guard (he had a pretty good chemistry with Anfernee late in the season where Ant would set screens for Deni and it would lead to good things happening). As mentioned above, the ISO volume is still super low, and I’d like to see it increase just a tick.

But I think being more proactive and intentional about hammering these mismatches would really make him be more impactful. I also wonder if he has a post game in there somewhere. There have been flashes against small guards, such as this one where he bullies Tyus Jones in the post:

He’s been used a little bit more in the post when he plays for Israel, and been effective there as well, which is somewhat encouraging:

In short, I think being able to take advantage of size mismatches in isolations, either on the perimeter or in the post would be super beneficial. He’s already got a crazy quick first step, and there aren’t too many people with his combo of size, strength, and quickness.

Intermediate game: Another area where I think he needs to develop, is his intermediate game off the dribble. He’s great at driving, and he’s started to knock down pullup threes when defenders go under high ball screens, which is awesome. However, if defenders go over ball screens, he can get into trouble since he doesn’t have much in the way of intermediate scoring. While it’s true that midrange shots are the least efficient shots in the game, sometimes you just have to shoot them if the defense gives you nothing else. This year, an absurdly low 5.3% of his total FGA were between 10 feet and the 3pt line, which is just an astronomically low rate for an on ball creator like Deni (for a comparison, famously jump-shot-averse Ben Simmons is around 11% for his career).

Here are some instances where the defense gives him either a floater or a short pull-up jumper, but his lack of comfort in these areas gets him a little stuck. As you can see in the clips, he’s pretty good at getting a defender on his hip and keeping him there; but he’s just not comfortable with a little floater here (which is the normal counter when you’ve got a defender on your hip like that).

I think Deni would greatly benefit from a pull-up floater. He has fantastic touch on his bump floaters, which is encouraging - I hope it can translate to a regular floater. I watched every single Deni 2pt make this season and could not find a single pull-up floater, but with how good he is at these little bump floaters, I think he could add them.

Additionally, with his strength and driving ability, I wonder if he can add this kind of bump off jumper off the dribble. Again, he RARELY ever goes to this, but it looked smooth, and the bump created a ton of separation. Guards like CJ McCollum make a living doing this kind of thing, and Deni should be able to get this anytime he wants because defenders are all afraid of his driving ability (not to mention he can just brush them out the way with his deceleration).

Live-ball turnovers: Deni also has a little bit of a turnover problem. Though he only averaged a respectable 2.7 turnovers over the course of the season, these numbers drastically ramped up once his usage increased after the All-Star break: 3.4 turnovers per game. Specifically, one problem is that he commits a ton of live-ball turnovers - he was in the top 10 of total live ball turnovers in the NBA this year. Part of it is that he’s constantly sweeping through defenders’ arms for fouls (and if a foul doesn’t get called, the ball is probably getting dislodged), but he has a little bit of a loose handle.

He also has a propensity to not see defenders at the nail digging at the ball:

He also sometimes just makes some really really careless passes that need to get cleaned up:

In short, Deni had a phenomenal first season for the Blazers, which saw him substantially improve as an offensive creator especially in the halfcourt. Given this growth trajectory, I think his ceiling is a lot higher than I gave him credit for at the time of the trade (and I was a huge fan of his dating back to his rookie year in Washington). Deni breaking out in this way really changed the trajectory of the franchise, and I’m excited to see where it leads.